What to Expect in 2024
By Aaron Allen
Does it feel quiet out there to you these days? Like the other shoe is about to
drop?
Yep, many are bracing for a global recession and a whole lot of other industry
implications of rapidly evolving business dynamics.
The Rolling Recession
Our view is that there will be a “rolling recession” in 2024 that will be felt in
specific pockets at different times giving a seemingly mild sense of impact
overall but putting acute pressure on others as they get pinched.
Credit and Debt Collapse?
There will be fallout from the corporate credit crisis — which is contributing
to debt covenants getting tripped, a sharp uptick in business failures in the
last two quarters of 2023, business valuations taking a hit, and making it
harder for small businesses and early-stage foodservice technology
companies to raise capital. Big corporates (as well as specialized funds
with dry powder for buying debt on the secondaries markets — trillions of
dollars in debt has to be repapered in the coming couple years) will leverage
their wherewithal for more growth, expansion, and capitalized investments
for performance optimization, leading to further industry consolidation. We
also see some exciting opportunities for operators and investors as
commercial real estate experiences its fast approaching period of
transformation.
The Rapidly Evolving Consumer and Competitive Environment
Consumer dining behavior evolved more in the last few years than the past
few decades. The industry has responded with new formats, creative channel
development, and beefing up their tech stack. There has been tremendous
population migration (putting new emphasis on the importance of geospatial
analysis and further impact analysis for chains contemplating changes in the
composition of their portfolio).
Too much happening here to cover in a single sitting, but expect a lot more ‘modernization’ and ’transformation’ initiatives (hint: a few of many green_shoots we’re watching include the return of the big box concepts, retooled commercial real estate, and Home Meal Replacement 2.0).
The Heart of Hospitality
Expect to see some retraining investments being made by responsible
leaders in the industry. The labor woes of the last few years has compounded
already difficult circumstances. Service has suffered while margins have
improved. The real cost has been to the heart of hospitality; the soul of the
industry looks wounded. The hospitality industry will need to step up with re_training and other employee enrichment programs to restore morale,
motivation, and up-skill its workforce.
A Lot More
A few other topics that are really worth contemplating further (non-exhaustive
and not equally-weighted): Cybersecurity, data privacy, automation, artificial
intelligence, shifting appetites and demographics, new innovations in full_service restaurants, dynamic pricing, franchise development activity, and so
much more.
Let’s Put Our Heads Together
If ever there is a time to seek experienced and objective outside help, it must
be now. There are just too many things moving around the strategy board
and onto the corporate radars than can be adequately addressed without
some ad hoc support for precision intelligence, custom strategy, and
accelerated implementation. Prepare for 2024 while we’re still in 2023.
About the Author
Our founder and chief strategist, Aaron Allen, is a third-generation restaurateur and literally grew up in his family’s seafood restaurant. He counts himself lucky that he knew what he wanted to do with his life from so early on. He has served as a CEO confidant and senior advisor to industry leaders with tens of thousands of locations and millions of managers and employees in their downstream influence. In total, he and his team have represented more than half of the largest 400 chains, and Aaron has personally led boots-on-the-ground engagements in 70 countries for clients ranging from start-ups to multi-billion-dollar, multinational companies.
Aaron has also become a go-to restaurant industry expert for media outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, the Guardian, Forbes, Fortune, Time, Entrepreneur, Smart Money, Mashable, BuzzFeed, Oprah.com, the Washington Post, National Public Radio, and hundreds of other influential news sources. In 2018, he was honored as a Top Voice on LinkedIn, joining an esteemed group of thinkers, strategists, and influencers. His publicity skills have helped land clients features on the Food Network, Top Chef, the Travel Channel, Bravo, and Fine Living Network as well as a number of pilot program invitations.
To read more great articles you can use, visit www.trnusa.com
Recent Comments